Is this a new Cuban missile crisis? Today many experts are saying that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brings the West to the brink of nuclear war. Is this a sensible way to talk?
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A Tsar is born. The world trembles
Is this a new Cuban missile crisis? Today many experts are saying that Russia's invasion of Ukraine brings the West to the brink of nuclear war. Is this a sensible way to talk?
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Fifteen years ago, the G8 group of world leaders met on the north German coast. Among them was Vladimir Putin, nearing the end of his second term as Russian president. The atmosphere was cordial, collaborative: he discussed economic coordination, climate change and even defence with US president George W Bush.
On Monday night, the world saw a different Putin. In a rambling speech, he declared that he would recognise the independence of two breakaway states in eastern Ukraine and ordered troops into the country.
How did so much change in such a short time? Some experts think Putin himself has changed. At one time he was seen as a coolly rational leader, bringing the skills he learned in the KGB to carve out a new path for Russia. But in the last week, Putin has seemed more like a power-crazed tsar. He has bullied his minions and seemed unwilling to listen to advice.
Previously, NATO has avoided direct confrontation with Russia. Now it has to decide whether to respond with force. The problem is that Russia is the world's most heavily-armed nuclear state.
Some have compared this week's events to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The USSR stationed missiles in Cuba - just 100 miles from US soil. The USA demanded the USSR remove them. Some of its top generals wanted to declare war.
In the end, the two sides came to an agreement. But it was the closest the world has ever come to nuclear war.
Yet in 1962, the USSR was sending missiles to a friendly government. In contrast, Putin's allies in eastern Ukraine only control around half the territory he has now recognised as theirs. So Russian soldiers could end up bogged down in a guerrilla war with well-armed Ukrainian soldiers and civilians.
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Is this a new Cuban missile crisis?
Yes: The world's nuclear superpowers are once again at loggerheads as their spheres of influence clash. Even if a solution is found, there is likely no way back to the warm relations of the 2000s.
No: In truth, Russian soldiers have been operating in eastern Ukraine for years. There is little NATO can do to stop them. This is more like Crimea in 2014: the world will gasp, then move on.
Or... In 1962, the USSR was a self-confident state that believed it owned the future. Today, Russia is a second-rate power with a corrupt government and unhappy people. It is acting out of weakness, not strength.
Keywords
G8 - An organisation made up of the world's largest economies. It became the G7 in 2014 when Russia was suspended for invading and annexing Crimea.
George W Bush - The president of the USA between 2001 and 2009. His victory in 2000 was controversial: he lost the popular vote and many believe he only won the election because the Supreme Court halted a recount of ballots in Florida.
Two breakaway states - Two regions in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, declared independence in 2014, with Russian backing. Since then 14,000 people have died fighting over these regions.
Tsar - Title given to an emperor of Russia before the revolution of 1917. The word was originally used for the Bulgarian monarchs in the 10th Century, but can also be used to refer to anyone with absolute power.
A Tsar is born. The world trembles
with apologies to The Economist Glossary
G8 - An organisation made up of the world’s largest economies. It became the G7 in 2014 when Russia was suspended for invading and annexing Crimea.
George W Bush - The president of the USA between 2001 and 2009. His victory in 2000 was controversial: he lost the popular vote and many believe he only won the election because the Supreme Court halted a recount of ballots in Florida.
Two breakaway states - Two regions in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, declared independence in 2014, with Russian backing. Since then 14,000 people have died fighting over these regions.
Tsar - Title given to an emperor of Russia before the revolution of 1917. The word was originally used for the Bulgarian monarchs in the 10th Century, but can also be used to refer to anyone with absolute power.